Paços De Ferreira 0-1 Tondela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.32
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
43%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.67
Over 2.5
48%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.63
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
22%
4.1
6+ Goals
9%
20.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
21%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
27%
+2.5pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.0pp
43%
Away Win
45%
-2.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-4.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+4.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.2pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Tondela EU Bookmakers 49%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.87/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.74/1.18
+57% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +9%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
270 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.9 Crosses 19.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paços De Ferreira
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Tondela
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.33 xG 1.09
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
358 Passes 284
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 12
25 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
01.12.2024 Tondela Tondela 2-1 HT 1-1 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR2
05.02.2024 Tondela Tondela 1-1 HT 1-1 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR2
26.08.2023 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 5-1 HT 4-0 Tondela Tondela POR2
02.05.2022 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 1-1 HT 0-1 Tondela Tondela POR
18.12.2021 Tondela Tondela 0-1 HT 0-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
18.05.2021 Tondela Tondela 2-3 HT 2-2 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paços De Ferreira
0-1
AWAY Tondela
1.66 xG 1.51
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
313 Passes 250
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
31 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Paços De Ferreira vs Tondela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tondela edged past Paços De Ferreira 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Tondela as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Paços De Ferreira had 55% of the ball to Tondela's 45%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 1.66 to 1.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paços De Ferreira had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Paços De Ferreira and 1.17 for Tondela.

What was the final score of Paços De Ferreira vs Tondela?

Paços De Ferreira 0-1 Tondela in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paços De Ferreira vs Tondela?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tondela win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Paços De Ferreira 29%, draw 28%, Tondela 43%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tondela), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tondela) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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