Padova Calcio 1-0 Empoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 12 Apr 2026

Padova Calcio
1-0 HT 0-0
Empoli
📅12/04/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2025/2026

Padova Calcio vs Empoli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
40%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.74
Over 2.5
50%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.81
No
46%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.8
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
21%
3.86
6+ Goals
10%
17.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.43
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
28.5
1/X
5%
12.85
X/1
12%
6.21
X/2
11%
5.28
X/X
13%
4.1
2/1
6%
33.0
2/2
21%
3.44
2/X
8%
12.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.5 — our 8% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+1.9pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.2pp
40%
Away Win
39%
+1.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
54%
-3.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
46%
+3.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.3pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Padova Calcio v Empoli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Padova Calcio EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Empoli EU Bookmakers 43%
+2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -8%
1.18/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.42
+10% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -47%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
324 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 77%
16.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
16.5 Crosses 23.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.7

Padova Calcio vs Empoli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Padova Calcio
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Empoli
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.61 xG 1.64
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
265 Passes 297
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.08.2025 Empoli Empoli 3-1 HT 2-1 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTB
22.02.2014 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 0-1 HT 0-1 Empoli Empoli nan
21.09.2013 Empoli Empoli 3-1 HT 0-1 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio nan
23.02.2013 Empoli Empoli 1-1 HT 1-1 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTB
25.09.2012 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 2-0 HT 1-0 Empoli Empoli İTB
18.02.2012 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 1-1 HT 1-1 Empoli Empoli İTB

Padova Calcio 1-0 Empoli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Padova Calcio
1-0
AWAY Empoli
1.36 xG 1.76
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 4
208 Passes 294
70% Pass Accuracy 75%
30 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Padova Calcio vs Empoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Padova Calcio nicked a narrow win over Empoli 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 26% / 40%) promised a tight game; Padova Calcio found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Padova Calcio had 44% of the ball to Empoli's 56%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.36 to 1.76.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Empoli led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Padova Calcio and 1.50 for Empoli.

What was the final score of Padova Calcio vs Empoli?

Padova Calcio 1-0 Empoli in the Italy - Serie B on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Padova Calcio vs Empoli?

Before kick-off our model rated an Empoli win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Padova Calcio 34%, draw 26%, Empoli 40%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Empoli) ✗ BTTS Yes
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