Valur vs Thor Akureyri Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Valur v Thor Akureyri — Team-Based Signals
Valur vs Thor Akureyri Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 0-0
Thor Akureyri
İZL
0-1
HT 0-1
Valur
İZL
2-2
HT 0-1
Thor Akureyri
İZL
3-5
HT 0-2
Valur
İZL
2-1
HT 1-0
Thor Akureyri
İZL
Valur 1-2 Thor Akureyri — Actual Match Statistics
Thor Akureyri edged past Valur 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Valur at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (59%) came in.
On the day, Valur had 60% of the ball to Thor Akureyri's 40%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 2.20 to 1.17 — the balance of chances actually favoured Valur.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valur had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Valur and 1.83 for Thor Akureyri.
What was the final score of Valur vs Thor Akureyri?
Valur 1-2 Thor Akureyri in the Iceland - Urvalsdeild on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Valur vs Thor Akureyri?
Before kick-off our model rated a Valur win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Valur 56%, draw 24%, Thor Akureyri 20%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Valur) went the other way.