ATK Mohun Bagan vs Punjab FC Prediction — Model Probabilities
ATK Mohun Bagan v Punjab FC — Team-Based Signals
ATK Mohun Bagan vs Punjab FC Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
ATK Mohun Bagan 3-2 Punjab FC — Actual Match Statistics
ATK Mohun Bagan found just enough to beat Punjab FC 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. A 5-goal game — the defences never settled.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had ATK Mohun Bagan as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.
The goals picture was genuinely open: 48% for over 2.5, 50% on both teams scoring.
By the numbers, possession split 54% to 46% in ATK Mohun Bagan's favour, shots finished 12-20, expected goals 0.40 to 1.51 — on chances, Punjab FC could feel hard done by.
Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, ATK Mohun Bagan had the better of it with 4 wins. Scoring in those meetings ran 2.50 a game for ATK Mohun Bagan against 0.50 for Punjab FC.
ATK Mohun Bagan vs Punjab FC Result & Final Score
ATK Mohun Bagan 3 - 2 Punjab FC in the India - Super League on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
ATK Mohun Bagan vs Punjab FC Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a ATK Mohun Bagan win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split ATK Mohun Bagan 55%, draw 25%, Punjab FC 20%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (ATK Mohun Bagan) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.