Deportivo Maldonado 4-2 Nacional de Football — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 12 Apr 2026

📅12/04/2026 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
39%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.67
Over 2.5
49%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.88
No
46%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+0.6pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.6pp
39%
Away Win
37%
+2.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
56%
-5.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
44%
+5.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.3pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Maldonado EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional de Football EU Bookmakers 40%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
1.10/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.13
-4% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / -1%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
263 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Maldonado
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Nacional de Football
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 4
17.11.2024 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 5-2 HT 1-0 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado URU
21.05.2024 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 0-2 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
24.10.2023 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 1-3 HT 1-1 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado URU
18.06.2023 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 4-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado URU
18.03.2023 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 0-0 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
31.07.2022 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 2-1 HT 2-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Maldonado
4-2
AWAY Nacional de Football
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Deportivo Maldonado vs Nacional de Football
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Maldonado saw off Nacional de Football 4-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 39% — and on the day Deportivo Maldonado made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Deportivo Maldonado had 50% of the ball to Nacional de Football's 50%, shots finished 12-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional de Football led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Deportivo Maldonado and 2.17 for Nacional de Football.

What was the final score of Deportivo Maldonado vs Nacional de Football?

Deportivo Maldonado 4-2 Nacional de Football in the Uruguay - Premier League on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Maldonado vs Nacional de Football?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Maldonado 35%, draw 26%, Nacional de Football 39%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Nacional de Football), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nacional de Football) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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