Juventud 1-0 Progreso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 12 Apr 2026

📅12/04/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.6
Over 2.5
43%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
18%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-3.8pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.1pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+4.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.4pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Juventud EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Progreso EU Bookmakers 31%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -3%
1.47/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.44
+14% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -15%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
334 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Juventud
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Progreso
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
09.11.2025 Juventud Juventud 1-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URU
29.06.2025 Juventud Juventud 2-0 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU
18.05.2025 Progreso Progreso 1-2 HT 0-1 Juventud Juventud URU
18.11.2023 Progreso Progreso 2-1 HT 2-0 Juventud Juventud URU2
07.07.2023 Juventud Juventud 1-1 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU2
06.08.2022 Progreso Progreso 0-1 HT 0-0 Juventud Juventud URU2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Juventud
1-0
AWAY Progreso
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Juventud vs Progreso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Juventud edged past Progreso 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Juventud as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Juventud had 56% of the ball to Progreso's 44%, shots finished 12-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Juventud had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Juventud and 0.83 for Progreso.

What was the final score of Juventud vs Progreso?

Juventud 1-0 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Juventud vs Progreso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Juventud win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Juventud 41%, draw 27%, Progreso 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Juventud), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Juventud) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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URU More Uruguay - Premier League
12 Apr 2026
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