Amorebieta 2-0 Villarreal II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.27
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
30%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.8
Over 2.5
42%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.73
No
54%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.15
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.72
6+ Goals
8%
15.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 34% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.4
1/2
9%
31.5
1/X
9%
13.0
X/1
17%
5.13
X/2
13%
5.98
X/X
13%
4.42
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
8%
4.21
2/X
5%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
40%
+2.9pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.6pp
30%
Away Win
32%
-2.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
54%
-8.0pp
54%
BTTS No
46%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amorebieta EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal II EU Bookmakers 36%
-14% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -12%
0.93/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.42
-19% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -20%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
304 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 78%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
24.5 Crosses 13.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Amorebieta
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Villarreal II
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.62 xG 2.17
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 3
262 Passes 325
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 7
4 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2023 Villarreal II Villarreal II 3-1 HT 1-0 Amorebieta Amorebieta İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Amorebieta
2-0
AWAY Villarreal II
2.05 xG 1.52
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 7
417 Passes 266
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
13 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Amorebieta vs Villarreal II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amorebieta saw off Villarreal II 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Amorebieta as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Amorebieta had 59% of the ball to Villarreal II's 41%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 2.05 to 1.52.

What was the final score of Amorebieta vs Villarreal II?

Amorebieta 2-0 Villarreal II in the Spain - 2nd Division on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amorebieta vs Villarreal II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Amorebieta win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Amorebieta 43%, draw 27%, Villarreal II 30%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Amorebieta), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Amorebieta) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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