Winterthur 1-3 Zürich — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒15:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.47
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
39%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.68
No
53%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.45
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.46
6+ Goals
11%
13.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.45 — our 30% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.76
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
12%
5.67
X/2
10%
5.53
X/X
12%
4.62
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
23%
3.64
2/X
7%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-2.0pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.9pp
39%
Away Win
36%
+2.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.0pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Winterthur EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Zürich EU Bookmakers 40%
-8% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +9%
1.10/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.20
-11% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +25%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
303 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 79%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
15.0 Crosses 20.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Winterthur
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Zürich
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.25 xG 1.17
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
292 Passes 301
73% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 4
03.04.2024 Zürich Zürich 0-0 HT 0-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
28.02.2024 Zürich Zürich 0-2 HT 0-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSVK
13.12.2023 Winterthur Winterthur 2-1 HT 1-1 Zürich Zürich İSV
07.10.2023 Zürich Zürich 3-2 HT 2-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
25.05.2023 Winterthur Winterthur 0-2 HT 0-2 Zürich Zürich İSV
12.02.2023 Zürich Zürich 1-1 HT 1-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Winterthur
1-3
AWAY Zürich
1.01 xG 1.00
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
390 Passes 247
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
27 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 12
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Winterthur vs Zürich
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zürich beat Winterthur 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 39% — and on the day Zürich made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Winterthur had 58% of the ball to Zürich's 42%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.01 to 1.00.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Winterthur and 1.17 for Zürich.

What was the final score of Winterthur vs Zürich?

Winterthur 1-3 Zürich in the Switzerland - Super League on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Winterthur vs Zürich?

Before kick-off our model rated an Zürich win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Winterthur 35%, draw 26%, Zürich 39%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Zürich) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Zürich) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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