St. Albans Saints 1-4 South Melbourne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 0-4
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
7.95
Draw
19%
6.26
Away
61%
1.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.63
Over 2.5
53%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.95
No
59%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
4%
X/2
20%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
32%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
9%
+11.1pp
19%
Draw
12%
+6.2pp
61%
Away Win
78%
-17.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
34%
+13.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
66%
-13.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.9pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Albans Saints EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 84%
-4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
0.53/1.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.00/0.46
-49% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +72%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
269 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
13.5 Crosses 32.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Albans Saints
0W-0D-5L
AWAY South Melbourne
0.20 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
144 Passes 306
59% Pass Accuracy 72%
18 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.06.2023 South Melbourne South Melbourne 4-0 HT 4-0 St. Albans Saints St. Albans Saints AVNPL
26.03.2023 St. Albans Saints St. Albans Saints 0-1 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
11.06.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 4-0 HT 2-0 St. Albans Saints St. Albans Saints AVNPL
13.03.2022 St. Albans Saints St. Albans Saints 1-4 HT 1-2 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
17.04.2021 South Melbourne South Melbourne 2-0 HT 1-0 St. Albans Saints St. Albans Saints AVNPL
POST-MATCH St. Albans Saints vs South Melbourne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

South Melbourne swept aside St. Albans Saints 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had South Melbourne as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, South Melbourne led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.20 goals for St. Albans Saints and 3.00 for South Melbourne.

What was the final score of St. Albans Saints vs South Melbourne?

St. Albans Saints 1-4 South Melbourne in the Australia - National Premier League on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Albans Saints vs South Melbourne?

Before kick-off our model rated an South Melbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split St. Albans Saints 20%, draw 19%, South Melbourne 61%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (South Melbourne), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (South Melbourne) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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