Motagua 3-4 CD Olimpia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.27
Draw
35%
2.88
Away
24%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.74
Over 2.5
34%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
15%
X/X
26%
2/1
4%
2/2
5%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+0.8pp
35%
Draw
31%
+3.8pp
24%
Away Win
29%
-4.4pp
66%
Under 2.5
54%
+12.5pp
34%
Over 2.5
46%
-12.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.3pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motagua EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Olimpia EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.44/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.02
+8% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +27%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 2
246 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 4.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motagua
0W-3D-3L
AWAY CD Olimpia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
09.05.2024 CD Olimpia CD Olimpia 3-3 HT 2-0 Motagua Motagua HON
22.04.2024 CD Olimpia CD Olimpia 2-2 HT 0-1 Motagua Motagua HON
25.02.2024 Motagua Motagua 0-2 HT 0-1 CD Olimpia CD Olimpia HON
22.12.2023 CD Olimpia CD Olimpia 2-1 HT 0-1 Motagua Motagua HON
18.12.2023 Motagua Motagua 0-0 HT 0-0 CD Olimpia CD Olimpia HON
23.10.2023 CD Olimpia CD Olimpia 3-0 HT 2-0 Motagua Motagua HON
POST-MATCH Motagua vs CD Olimpia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CD Olimpia nicked a narrow win over Motagua 4-3 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Motagua at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CD Olimpia led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Motagua and 2.00 for CD Olimpia.

What was the final score of Motagua vs CD Olimpia?

Motagua 3-4 CD Olimpia in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motagua vs CD Olimpia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Motagua 41%, draw 35%, CD Olimpia 24%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Motagua), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Motagua) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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