Toluca 0-0 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 12 May 2024

Toluca
0-0 HT 0-0
Guadalajara
📅12/05/2024 · 🕒05:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Toluca vs Guadalajara Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.9
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
23%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.1
Over 2.5
44%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
4.15
2-3 Goals
41%
1.86
4-5 Goals
21%
3.04
6+ Goals
8%
9.56
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.15 — our 30% vs market 19.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.57
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
19%
4.59
X/2
7%
7.63
X/X
16%
5.29
2/1
6%
22.3
2/2
10%
5.24
2/X
5%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
49%
-0.9pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.4pp
23%
Away Win
26%
-3.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
44%
+12.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
56%
-12.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.2pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Toluca v Guadalajara — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toluca EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 30%
+6% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +5%
1.85/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.34
+31% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +21%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
315 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 79%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
17.1 Crosses 15.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5

Toluca vs Guadalajara Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toluca
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Guadalajara
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.96 xG 0.68
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
457 Passes 266
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.05.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
31.01.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 3-2 HT 2-2 Toluca Toluca MEK
02.10.2023 Toluca Toluca 1-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
22.01.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-2 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
05.09.2022 Toluca Toluca 0-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
10.04.2022 Toluca Toluca 1-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK

Toluca 0-0 Guadalajara — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toluca
0-0
AWAY Guadalajara
1.62 xG 1.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
22 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
412 Passes 296
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
30 Box Touches 12
13 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Toluca vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toluca and Guadalajara played out a goalless draw. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match lean was Toluca at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Toluca had 56% of the ball to Guadalajara's 44%, shots finished 22-9, expected goals 1.62 to 1.00.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Toluca and 1.17 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Toluca vs Guadalajara?

Toluca 0-0 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toluca vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Toluca 48%, draw 29%, Guadalajara 23%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Toluca) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Toluca) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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