UTC Cajamarca 2-6 Melgar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.17
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
39%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.64
Over 2.5
53%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.88
No
47%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
28%
+7.2pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.6pp
39%
Away Win
43%
-3.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
57%
-9.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
43%
+9.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.6pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UTC Cajamarca EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Melgar EU Bookmakers 46%
+6% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +3%
1.13/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/0.81
+8% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +12%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
273 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 79%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
21.4 Crosses 17.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UTC Cajamarca
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Melgar
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.09 xG 1.27
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
133 Passes 311
57% Pass Accuracy 74%
15 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.08.2023 Melgar Melgar 1-1 HT 0-0 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
18.03.2023 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 0-0 HT 0-0 Melgar Melgar PER
29.07.2022 Melgar Melgar 1-0 HT 0-0 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
04.03.2022 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 3-1 HT 0-0 Melgar Melgar PER
17.08.2021 Melgar Melgar 0-1 HT 0-1 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
16.04.2021 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 3-1 HT 1-0 Melgar Melgar PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UTC Cajamarca
2-6
AWAY Melgar
0.68 xG 3.18
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 5
327 Passes 218
81% Pass Accuracy 71%
19 Box Touches 23
24 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH UTC Cajamarca vs Melgar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melgar ran out comfortable winners over UTC Cajamarca 6-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 25% / 39% — and on the day Melgar made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, UTC Cajamarca had 57% of the ball to Melgar's 43%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 0.68 to 3.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, UTC Cajamarca had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for UTC Cajamarca and 0.67 for Melgar.

What was the final score of UTC Cajamarca vs Melgar?

UTC Cajamarca 2-6 Melgar in the Peru - Premier League on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UTC Cajamarca vs Melgar?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split UTC Cajamarca 36%, draw 25%, Melgar 39%. The final score 2-6 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melgar), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Melgar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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