Northern Virginia 4-1 Patuxent — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 2, 12 Jun 2025

📅12/06/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.11
Draw
19%
8.11
Away
17%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.74
Over 2.5
53%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
3.08
No
51%
1.32
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
24%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
85%
-21.2pp
19%
Draw
9%
+9.7pp
18%
Away Win
6%
+11.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
33%
+13.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
67%
-13.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
28%
+20.5pp
51%
BTTS No
72%
-20.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Northern Virginia EU Bookmakers 90%
Head to Head
AWAY Patuxent EU Bookmakers 9%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
4.55/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/1.00
+68% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +150%
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
473 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Northern Virginia
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Patuxent
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
14.07.2024 Patuxent 5-1 HT 3-1 Northern Virginia Northern Virginia USL2
18.05.2024 Northern Virginia Northern Virginia 2-1 HT 2-0 Patuxent USL2
14.05.2023 Northern Virginia Northern Virginia 1-0 HT 0-0 Patuxent USL2
POST-MATCH Northern Virginia vs Patuxent
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Northern Virginia ran out comfortable winners over Patuxent 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Northern Virginia as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Northern Virginia had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Northern Virginia and 2.00 for Patuxent.

What was the final score of Northern Virginia vs Patuxent?

Northern Virginia 4-1 Patuxent in the USA - USL League 2 on 12/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Northern Virginia vs Patuxent?

Before kick-off our model rated a Northern Virginia win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Northern Virginia 64%, draw 19%, Patuxent 18%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Northern Virginia), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Northern Virginia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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