Patuxent 5-1 Northern Virginia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 2, 14 Jul 2024

📅14/07/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
4.13
Draw
18%
4.49
Away
62%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.98
Over 2.5
61%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.43
No
42%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
6%
X/2
24%
X/X
7%
2/1
3%
2/2
31%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
20%
-0.8pp
18%
Draw
19%
-0.2pp
62%
Away Win
61%
+1.0pp
39%
Under 2.5
30%
+9.3pp
61%
Over 2.5
70%
-9.3pp
58%
BTTS Yes
66%
-7.4pp
42%
BTTS No
34%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Patuxent EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Northern Virginia EU Bookmakers 66%
-32% / -32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +32% / +32%
0.50/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 4.00/1.00
-64% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +79% / +18%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
333 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 438 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Patuxent
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Northern Virginia
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
18.05.2024 Northern Virginia Northern Virginia 2-1 HT 2-0 Patuxent USL2
14.05.2023 Northern Virginia Northern Virginia 1-0 HT 0-0 Patuxent USL2
POST-MATCH Patuxent vs Northern Virginia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Patuxent swept aside Northern Virginia 5-1. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Northern Virginia at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Northern Virginia led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Patuxent and 1.50 for Northern Virginia.

What was the final score of Patuxent vs Northern Virginia?

Patuxent 5-1 Northern Virginia in the USA - USL League 2 on 14/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Patuxent vs Northern Virginia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Northern Virginia win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Patuxent 20%, draw 18%, Northern Virginia 62%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Northern Virginia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Northern Virginia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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