Criciuma 1-1 Fluminense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 12 Jul 2024

📅12/07/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
Over 2.5
40%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.96
No
58%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.59
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.55
6+ Goals
8%
24.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.59 — our 34% vs market 32.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
18%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-3.8pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.1pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.6pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Criciuma EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Fluminense EU Bookmakers 28%
-13% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -13%
1.26/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.56
+3% / -68% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
325 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 75%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
22.8 Crosses 16.4
4.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Criciuma
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Fluminense
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.87 xG 1.34
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
244 Passes 384
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
31.07.2021 Fluminense Fluminense 3-0 HT 1-0 Criciuma Criciuma BRK
28.07.2021 Criciuma Criciuma 2-1 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BRK
16.03.2017 Fluminense Fluminense 3-2 HT 2-1 Criciuma Criciuma BRK
10.03.2017 Criciuma Criciuma 1-1 HT 1-1 Fluminense Fluminense BRK
19.10.2014 Fluminense Fluminense 4-2 HT 1-1 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
17.07.2014 Criciuma Criciuma 3-2 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Criciuma
1-1
AWAY Fluminense
1.08 xG 2.13
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 5
303 Passes 511
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
17 Box Touches 33
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Criciuma vs Fluminense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Criciuma and Fluminense shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Criciuma at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Criciuma had 40% of the ball to Fluminense's 60%, shots finished 13-18, expected goals 1.08 to 2.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fluminense led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Criciuma and 2.33 for Fluminense.

What was the final score of Criciuma vs Fluminense?

Criciuma 1-1 Fluminense in the Brazil - Serie A on 12/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Criciuma vs Fluminense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Criciuma win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Criciuma 44%, draw 28%, Fluminense 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Criciuma), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Criciuma) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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