Flamengo 1-2 Fortaleza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 12 Jul 2024

📅12/07/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.57
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.04
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.84
6+ Goals
9%
16.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 28% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
59%
-11.2pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.3pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+6.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.4pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Flamengo EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 20%
-8% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +7%
1.76/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.48
-3% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +9%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
403 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 76%
28.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
21.3 Crosses 13.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Flamengo
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Fortaleza
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.48 xG 1.29
61% Ball Possession 39%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
457 Passes 263
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
05.11.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-2 HT 0-1 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
02.07.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 2-0 HT 1-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
29.09.2022 Fortaleza Fortaleza 3-2 HT 1-2 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
05.06.2022 Flamengo Flamengo 1-2 HT 1-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
10.10.2021 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-3 HT 0-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
24.06.2021 Flamengo Flamengo 2-1 HT 2-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Flamengo
1-2
AWAY Fortaleza
2.05 xG 0.39
70% Ball Possession 30%
21 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 4
494 Passes 168
86% Pass Accuracy 68%
29 Box Touches 11
33 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Flamengo vs Fortaleza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza nicked a narrow win over Flamengo 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Flamengo at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Flamengo had 70% of the ball to Fortaleza's 30%, shots finished 21-7, expected goals 2.05 to 0.39 — the balance of chances actually favoured Flamengo.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Flamengo had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Flamengo and 1.00 for Fortaleza.

What was the final score of Flamengo vs Fortaleza?

Flamengo 1-2 Fortaleza in the Brazil - Serie A on 12/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Flamengo vs Fortaleza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Flamengo 48%, draw 28%, Fortaleza 23%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Flamengo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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