Palmeiras 3-1 Atletico Goianiense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 12 Jul 2024

📅12/07/2024 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.42
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
20%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.99
No
50%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.66
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.3
6+ Goals
10%
11.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.66 — our 26% vs market 22.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
24%
X/2
5%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
66%
-11.9pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.4pp
20%
Away Win
13%
+7.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
46%
+3.4pp
50%
BTTS No
54%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Goianiense EU Bookmakers 16%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +3%
1.98/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.80
+7% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -3%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
396 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 75%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
25.7 Crosses 15.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Atletico Goianiense
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.84 xG 0.73
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 5
352 Passes 340
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
28 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.10.2022 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 1-1 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
17.06.2022 Palmeiras Palmeiras 4-2 HT 4-1 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
11.11.2021 Palmeiras Palmeiras 4-0 HT 2-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
18.07.2021 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 0-3 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
23.02.2021 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
25.10.2020 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 0-3 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Atletico Goianiense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras saw off Atletico Goianiense 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Palmeiras and 0.67 for Atletico Goianiense.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Atletico Goianiense?

Palmeiras 3-1 Atletico Goianiense in the Brazil - Serie A on 12/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Atletico Goianiense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 54%, draw 25%, Atletico Goianiense 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✗ Under 2.5
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