Cagliari 3-1 Carrarese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 12 Aug 2024

📅12/08/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.42
Draw
22%
4.34
Away
20%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.0
Over 2.5
60%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.99
No
46%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.76
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
28%
3.24
6+ Goals
12%
11.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.68
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
19.8
X/1
13%
3.45
X/2
8%
15.2
X/X
9%
6.34
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
23.6
2/2
6%
12.5
2/X
6%
20.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.6 — our 7% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
67%
-8.4pp
22%
Draw
20%
+1.6pp
20%
Away Win
13%
+6.8pp
40%
Under 2.5
46%
-6.2pp
60%
Over 2.5
54%
+6.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
46%
+7.4pp
46%
BTTS No
54%
-7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cagliari EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Carrarese EU Bookmakers 16%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
2.24/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/2.81
+3% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -22%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
440 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 76%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
28.0 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cagliari
3-1
AWAY Carrarese
2.59 xG 1.26
53% Ball Possession 47%
20 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 4
372 Passes 324
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 11
30 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cagliari vs Carrarese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cagliari got the better of Carrarese 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cagliari as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%) came in.

On the day, Cagliari had 53% of the ball to Carrarese's 47%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 2.59 to 1.26.

What was the final score of Cagliari vs Carrarese?

Cagliari 3-1 Carrarese in the Italy - Cup on 12/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cagliari vs Carrarese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cagliari win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Cagliari 58%, draw 22%, Carrarese 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cagliari), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cagliari) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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