Salernitana 3-3 Spezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 12 Aug 2024

Salernitana
3-3 HT 0-2
Spezia
📅12/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Cup – 2024/2025

Salernitana vs Spezia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
30%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.22
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.66
6+ Goals
11%
15.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 27% vs market 25.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.61
1/2
8%
31.0
1/X
5%
12.05
X/1
18%
5.56
X/2
14%
5.99
X/X
14%
4.2
2/1
7%
29.0
2/2
8%
4.03
2/X
7%
12.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
37%
+7.2pp
26%
Draw
30%
-3.5pp
30%
Away Win
33%
-3.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.3pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Salernitana v Spezia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salernitana EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Spezia EU Bookmakers 37%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +45% / +45%
1.16/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.23
-38% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +119% / +127%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
294 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 77%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
11.2 Crosses 18.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0

Salernitana vs Spezia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salernitana
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Spezia
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.32 xG 1.81
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
282 Passes 327
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.04.2023 Spezia Spezia 1-1 HT 0-1 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
22.10.2022 Salernitana Salernitana 1-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTA
07.02.2022 Salernitana Salernitana 2-2 HT 2-2 Spezia Spezia İTA
16.10.2021 Spezia Spezia 2-1 HT 0-1 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
31.07.2020 Salernitana Salernitana 1-2 HT 1-1 Spezia Spezia İTB
29.12.2019 Spezia Spezia 2-1 HT 1-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTB

Salernitana 3-3 Spezia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salernitana
3-3
AWAY Spezia
2.01 xG 1.30
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 7
440 Passes 282
89% Pass Accuracy 85%
30 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Salernitana vs Spezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Salernitana and Spezia couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Salernitana at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Salernitana had 59% of the ball to Spezia's 41%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 2.01 to 1.30.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spezia led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Salernitana and 1.50 for Spezia.

What was the final score of Salernitana vs Spezia?

Salernitana 3-3 Spezia in the Italy - Cup on 12/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salernitana vs Spezia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Salernitana win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Salernitana 44%, draw 26%, Spezia 30%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Salernitana) ✗ Under 2.5
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