Lecce 2-1 Mantova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 12 Aug 2024

Lecce
2-1 HT 1-0
Mantova
📅12/08/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Italy - Cup – 2024/2025

Lecce vs Mantova Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.49
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.4
2-3 Goals
43%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.49
6+ Goals
10%
13.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 27% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.84
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
17.3
X/1
18%
3.58
X/2
7%
12.95
X/X
10%
5.47
2/1
7%
24.45
2/2
10%
10.8
2/X
7%
18.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
63%
-10.1pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.9pp
22%
Away Win
15%
+7.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.8pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lecce v Mantova — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lecce EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Mantova EU Bookmakers 18%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +78% / +78%
1.66/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/0.00
-24% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +79% / –
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
445 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 73%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
18.7 Crosses –
1.2 Yellow Cards –

Lecce vs Mantova Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lecce
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Mantova
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
The Meetings
06.03.2010 Mantova Mantova 2-2 HT 1-1 Lecce Lecce İTB
26.09.2009 Lecce Lecce 2-1 HT 0-0 Mantova Mantova İTB
03.05.2008 Lecce Lecce 1-1 HT 1-0 Mantova Mantova İTB
08.12.2007 Mantova Mantova 1-0 HT 1-0 Lecce Lecce İTB
17.02.2007 Mantova Mantova 4-0 HT 1-0 Lecce Lecce İTB
19.09.2006 Lecce Lecce 2-0 HT 1-0 Mantova Mantova İTB

Lecce 2-1 Mantova — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lecce
2-1
AWAY Mantova
1.72 xG 0.76
36% Ball Possession 64%
23 Total Shots 3
9 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 3
289 Passes 532
86% Pass Accuracy 88%
32 Box Touches 9
20 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lecce vs Mantova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lecce edged past Mantova 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lecce as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Lecce had 36% of the ball to Mantova's 64%, shots finished 23-3, expected goals 1.72 to 0.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lecce and 1.50 for Mantova.

What was the final score of Lecce vs Mantova?

Lecce 2-1 Mantova in the Italy - Cup on 12/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lecce vs Mantova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lecce win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Lecce 53%, draw 25%, Mantova 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lecce) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lecce) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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