Baerum 2-2 Sarpsborg 08 II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - 3rd Division, 12 Aug 2024

📅12/08/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
25%
4.49
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
3.68
Over 2.5
67%
1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.35
No
37%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
15%
9.48
2-3 Goals
31%
2.49
4-5 Goals
38%
2.33
6+ Goals
16%
3.61
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
10%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
5%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
59%
-8.6pp
25%
Draw
19%
+5.9pp
24%
Away Win
22%
+2.7pp
33%
Under 2.5
24%
+9.5pp
67%
Over 2.5
76%
-9.5pp
63%
BTTS Yes
70%
-7.3pp
37%
BTTS No
30%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baerum EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Sarpsborg 08 II EU Bookmakers 25%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -30% / -30%
2.01/2.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.47/3.46
-22% / -45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -68% / -31%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
410 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 0.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Baerum
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Sarpsborg 08 II
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
0 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 0
13.05.2024 Sarpsborg 08 II Sarpsborg 08 II 2-0 Baerum Baerum NOR4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Baerum
2-2
AWAY Sarpsborg 08 II
46% Ball Possession 54%
19 Total Shots 16
9 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Baerum vs Sarpsborg 08 II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Baerum and Sarpsborg 08 II shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Baerum at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (67%), both teams to score (63%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Baerum had 46% of the ball to Sarpsborg 08 II's 54%, shots finished 19-16.

What was the final score of Baerum vs Sarpsborg 08 II?

Baerum 2-2 Sarpsborg 08 II in the Norway - 3rd Division on 12/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baerum vs Sarpsborg 08 II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Baerum win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Baerum 51%, draw 25%, Sarpsborg 08 II 24%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Baerum) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Baerum) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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