Corinthians 3-1 Juventude — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 12 Sep 2024

📅12/09/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.53
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.09
No
59%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.89
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.03
6+ Goals
8%
18.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.89 — our 34% vs market 28.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.98
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.4
X/1
20%
3.53
X/2
7%
11.55
X/X
12%
4.91
2/1
10%
26.0
2/2
10%
10.1
2/X
6%
18.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
61%
-6.7pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.6pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+6.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.7pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Corinthians EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Juventude EU Bookmakers 19%
+2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.68/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.38
+36% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +26%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
412 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 75%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.2
21.5 Crosses 14.1
3.5 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Corinthians
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Juventude
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.00 xG 1.36
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
420 Passes 288
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.08.2024 Juventude Juventude 2-1 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BRK
04.08.2024 Corinthians Corinthians 1-1 HT 0-1 Juventude Juventude BR1
18.04.2024 Juventude Juventude 2-0 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
05.10.2022 Juventude Juventude 2-2 HT 0-1 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
11.06.2022 Corinthians Corinthians 2-0 HT 1-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
10.12.2021 Juventude Juventude 1-0 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Corinthians
3-1
AWAY Juventude
1.30 xG 0.51
69% Ball Possession 31%
26 Total Shots 10
13 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
464 Passes 158
85% Pass Accuracy 66%
32 Box Touches 10
33 Crosses 10
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Corinthians vs Juventude
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Corinthians beat Juventude 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Corinthians as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Corinthians had 69% of the ball to Juventude's 31%, shots finished 26-10, expected goals 1.30 to 0.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Juventude led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Corinthians and 1.33 for Juventude.

What was the final score of Corinthians vs Juventude?

Corinthians 3-1 Juventude in the Brazil - Cup on 12/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Corinthians vs Juventude?

Before kick-off our model rated a Corinthians win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Corinthians 54%, draw 24%, Juventude 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Corinthians) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Corinthians) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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