Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 12 Sep 2024

📅12/09/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
29%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.15
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.72
6+ Goals
9%
15.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 29% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.17
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.25
X/1
15%
3.84
X/2
10%
9.78
X/X
11%
4.88
2/1
8%
24.45
2/2
12%
7.94
2/X
6%
16.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
57%
-10.7pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.2pp
29%
Away Win
19%
+9.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.8pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 22%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -11%
1.45/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.96
+43% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +25%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
384 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 78%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.7
17.7 Crosses 21.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Paranaense
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.44 xG 0.92
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
338 Passes 316
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.08.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BRK
27.08.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
05.05.2024 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-0 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
26.11.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 0-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
24.07.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-2 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
28.12.2020 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 3-0 HT 2-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Paranaense
2-1
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.96 xG 0.77
72% Ball Possession 28%
25 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 1
433 Passes 131
86% Pass Accuracy 63%
29 Box Touches 9
32 Crosses 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Paranaense nicked a narrow win over Vasco da Gama 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atletico Paranaense as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Paranaense had 72% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 28%, shots finished 25-9, expected goals 1.96 to 0.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Paranaense had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.67 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama?

Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Cup on 12/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 46%, draw 25%, Vasco da Gama 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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