Vasco da Gama 2-1 Atletico Paranaense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 30 Aug 2024

📅30/08/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.46
Draw
26%
2.94
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.51
Over 2.5
44%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.06
No
53%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.24
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
5.51
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.81
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.35
X/1
17%
4.97
X/2
14%
5.53
X/X
14%
3.58
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
13%
4.42
2/X
5%
14.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
37%
+3.6pp
26%
Draw
31%
-4.8pp
34%
Away Win
32%
+1.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
62%
-6.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
38%
+6.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.4pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 36%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
2.20/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.31
+150% / -67% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +30%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
321 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 79%
13.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
15.2 Crosses 14.2
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vasco da Gama
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.94 xG 1.45
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
290 Passes 386
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
27.08.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
05.05.2024 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-0 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
26.11.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 0-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
24.07.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-2 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
28.12.2020 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 3-0 HT 2-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
07.09.2020 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vasco da Gama
2-1
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
0.98 xG 0.86
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
379 Passes 237
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
15 Box Touches 13
27 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Vasco da Gama vs Atletico Paranaense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vasco da Gama squeezed past Atletico Paranaense 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Vasco da Gama as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vasco da Gama had 59% of the ball to Atletico Paranaense's 41%, shots finished 11-4, expected goals 0.98 to 0.86.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Paranaense led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.17 for Atletico Paranaense.

What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Atletico Paranaense?

Vasco da Gama 2-1 Atletico Paranaense in the Brazil - Cup on 30/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Atletico Paranaense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vasco da Gama win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 41%, draw 26%, Atletico Paranaense 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vasco da Gama) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vasco da Gama) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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