Pontypridd Town AFC 1-3 Newport City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 12 Sep 2025

📅12/09/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.29
Draw
31%
3.64
Away
46%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
2.07
Over 2.5
40%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
49%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
7%
X/2
13%
X/X
16%
2/1
4%
2/2
25%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
27%
-3.8pp
31%
Draw
24%
+6.9pp
46%
Away Win
49%
-3.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
44%
+15.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
56%
-15.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.1pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pontypridd Town AFC EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Newport City EU Bookmakers 53%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
2.08/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.07/1.45
+39% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -2%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
272 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pontypridd Town AFC
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Newport City
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
10.01.2025 Pontypridd Town AFC Pontypridd Town AFC 0-2 HT 0-0 Newport City Newport City GALFAW
27.09.2024 Newport City Newport City 0-1 HT 0-0 Pontypridd Town AFC Pontypridd Town AFC GALFAW
POST-MATCH Pontypridd Town AFC vs Newport City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newport City saw off Pontypridd Town AFC 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Newport City as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Pontypridd Town AFC and 1.00 for Newport City.

What was the final score of Pontypridd Town AFC vs Newport City?

Pontypridd Town AFC 1-3 Newport City in the Wales - FAW Championship on 12/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pontypridd Town AFC vs Newport City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Newport City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Pontypridd Town AFC 23%, draw 31%, Newport City 46%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newport City), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Newport City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
GALFAW More Wales - FAW Championship
12 Sep 2025
21:30 Carmarthen Town vs Treowen Stars Analysis →
21:30 Trefelin vs Ammanford Analysis →
21:30 Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major Analysis →
21:45 Buckley Town vs Holyhead Hotspur FC Analysis →
21:45 Ruthin Town vs Llandudno FC Analysis →
21:45 Penrhyncoch vs Guilsfield Analysis →