Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1 Kyoto Sanga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 12 Sep 2025

📅12/09/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.89
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.68
No
43%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.53
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.15
6+ Goals
10%
10.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.52
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.2
X/1
13%
4.55
X/2
9%
7.73
X/X
5%
5.1
2/1
8%
22.35
2/2
13%
5.68
2/X EV+ ✗
12%
14.1
Value flag · 2/X at 14.1 — our 12% vs market 4.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-2.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.8pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
+1.1pp
43%
BTTS No
44%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 29%
-9% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +24%
1.39/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.43
-28% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +49% / +6%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
357 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 73%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
24.2 Crosses 16.3
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Kyoto Sanga
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.49 xG 0.80
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
297 Passes 209
70% Pass Accuracy 63%
26 Box Touches 17
26 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
29.03.2025 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 1-0 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
03.11.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-1 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
19.05.2024 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 0-5 HT 0-3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
23.09.2023 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 1-0 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
04.06.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-1 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
05.10.2022 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 1-2 HT 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JPK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1-1
AWAY Kyoto Sanga
3.07 xG 0.49
61% Ball Possession 39%
27 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 1
319 Passes 172
79% Pass Accuracy 64%
47 Box Touches 13
36 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Kyoto Sanga couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 61% of the ball to Kyoto Sanga's 39%, shots finished 27-5, expected goals 3.07 to 0.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 0.83 for Kyoto Sanga.

What was the final score of Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1 Kyoto Sanga in the Japan - J1 League on 12/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Sanfrecce Hiroshima 47%, draw 26%, Kyoto Sanga 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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