Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-1 Kyoto Sanga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.47
Draw
27%
4.19
Away
25%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.29
Over 2.5
54%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.73
2-3 Goals
41%
1.92
4-5 Goals
26%
2.83
6+ Goals
10%
7.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1.78
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
9%
16.95
X/1
21%
3.76
X/2
10%
13.0
X/X
10%
6.66
2/1
8%
20.75
2/2
9%
9.56
2/X
8%
17.45
Value flag · 1/X at 16.95 — our 9% vs market 3.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
64%
-15.5pp
27%
Draw
21%
+6.5pp
25%
Away Win
16%
+9.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
40%
+6.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
60%
-6.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.5pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 19%
-7% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +30%
1.69/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.50
+10% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +34%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
408 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 74%
28.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
25.4 Crosses 18.1
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Kyoto Sanga
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.54 xG 0.70
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
296 Passes 249
72% Pass Accuracy 70%
26 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
19.05.2024 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 0-5 HT 0-3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
23.09.2023 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 1-0 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
04.06.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-1 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
05.10.2022 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 1-2 HT 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JPK
17.07.2022 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 1-1 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
21.05.2022 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-1 HT 2-1 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0-1
AWAY Kyoto Sanga
1.60 xG 1.42
62% Ball Possession 38%
20 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 4
295 Passes 140
73% Pass Accuracy 58%
34 Box Touches 26
32 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kyoto Sanga edged past Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 62% of the ball to Kyoto Sanga's 38%, shots finished 20-13, expected goals 1.60 to 1.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 0.83 for Kyoto Sanga.

What was the final score of Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-1 Kyoto Sanga in the Japan - J1 League on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Sanfrecce Hiroshima 48%, draw 27%, Kyoto Sanga 25%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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