Consadole Sapporo 1-1 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
44%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.84
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.19
6+ Goals
11%
10.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.34
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
7%
12.5
X/1
11%
5.39
X/2
13%
6.07
X/X
9%
4.87
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
25.5
2/2
25%
3.95
2/X
9%
12.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 7% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
40%
-9.1pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.6pp
44%
Away Win
34%
+10.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+0.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-0.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.6pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Consadole Sapporo EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 37%
-10% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -1%
1.34/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.32
+6% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +22%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
450 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 74%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
18.7 Crosses 18.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 0.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Consadole Sapporo
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.49 xG 1.46
55% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
355 Passes 286
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
27 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
03.05.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-1 HT 0-1 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo JAP
24.06.2023 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo 1-4 HT 1-3 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
09.04.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-3 HT 1-2 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo JAP
02.09.2022 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo 2-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
19.03.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-2 HT 1-1 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo JAP
11.09.2021 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-2 HT 0-0 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Consadole Sapporo
1-1
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.41 xG 1.43
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
310 Passes 331
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
32 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Consadole Sapporo vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Consadole Sapporo and Cerezo Osaka couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Cerezo Osaka at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Consadole Sapporo had 49% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 51%, shots finished 14-19, expected goals 1.41 to 1.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Consadole Sapporo had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Consadole Sapporo and 1.67 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Consadole Sapporo vs Cerezo Osaka?

Consadole Sapporo 1-1 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Consadole Sapporo vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Consadole Sapporo 31%, draw 25%, Cerezo Osaka 44%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cerezo Osaka), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
3 Nov 2024
07:00 Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga Analysis →
08:00 FC Tokyo vs Shonan Bellmare Analysis →
08:00 Sagan Tosu vs Machida Zelvia Analysis →
09:00 Avispa Fukuoka vs Kashiwa Reysol Analysis →