Sagan Tosu 2-1 Machida Zelvia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.13
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
47%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.43
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
3.46
6+ Goals
10%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.43 — our 30% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
7.71
1/2
9%
23.15
1/X
7%
16.3
X/1
10%
9.78
X/2
12%
3.82
X/X
14%
5.29
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
27%
2.13
2/X
6%
15.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
21%
+4.6pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.3pp
48%
Away Win
55%
-7.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.3pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 60%
+6% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+19% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
280 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 79%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.4 Crosses
1.1 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sagan Tosu
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Machida Zelvia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.78 xG 2.84
62% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 0
446 Passes 242
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
13 Box Touches 33
8 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
30.03.2024 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 3-1 HT 1-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sagan Tosu
2-1
AWAY Machida Zelvia
0.56 xG 0.75
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 9
194 Passes 284
66% Pass Accuracy 71%
13 Box Touches 30
10 Crosses 27
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sagan Tosu vs Machida Zelvia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sagan Tosu squeezed past Machida Zelvia 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Machida Zelvia at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Sagan Tosu had 41% of the ball to Machida Zelvia's 59%, shots finished 8-15, expected goals 0.56 to 0.75.

What was the final score of Sagan Tosu vs Machida Zelvia?

Sagan Tosu 2-1 Machida Zelvia in the Japan - J1 League on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sagan Tosu vs Machida Zelvia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Sagan Tosu 26%, draw 27%, Machida Zelvia 48%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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