Cerezo Osaka 1-1 Consadole Sapporo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 3 May 2024

📅03/05/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.76
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
31%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.07
Over 2.5
52%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.06
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
25%
3.08
6+ Goals
11%
9.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.3
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.4
X/1
13%
4.31
X/2
11%
8.92
X/X
11%
5.27
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
22.3
2/2
15%
6.36
2/X
7%
14.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 11% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-6.2pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.7pp
30%
Away Win
23%
+7.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.9pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Consadole Sapporo EU Bookmakers 26%
-3% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
1.24/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.47
-17% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -26%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
403 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 76%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.8
21.8 Crosses 16.6
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Consadole Sapporo
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.37 xG 1.55
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
271 Passes 376
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
24.06.2023 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo 1-4 HT 1-3 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
09.04.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-3 HT 1-2 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo JAP
02.09.2022 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo 2-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
19.03.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-2 HT 1-1 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo JAP
11.09.2021 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-2 HT 0-0 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo JAP
08.09.2021 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo 0-3 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
1-1
AWAY Consadole Sapporo
2.12 xG 0.89
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
311 Passes 335
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
31 Box Touches 28
19 Crosses 12
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Consadole Sapporo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka and Consadole Sapporo couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Cerezo Osaka at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 49% of the ball to Consadole Sapporo's 51%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 2.12 to 0.89.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Consadole Sapporo led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 1.67 for Consadole Sapporo.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Consadole Sapporo?

Cerezo Osaka 1-1 Consadole Sapporo in the Japan - J1 League on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Consadole Sapporo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 46%, draw 23%, Consadole Sapporo 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cerezo Osaka), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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