FC Tokyo 2-1 Kyoto Sanga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 3 May 2024

📅03/05/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.91
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.0
6+ Goals
9%
18.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.69
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.2
X/1
12%
4.24
X/2
13%
7.33
X/X
8%
4.45
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
9%
5.77
2/X
11%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-2.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.3pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 29%
+4% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.71/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.46
+10% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +30%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
346 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 77%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
16.9 Crosses 16.8
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tokyo
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Kyoto Sanga
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.25 xG 0.86
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
305 Passes 252
77% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
12.08.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-0 HT 1-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
18.06.2023 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 1-3 HT 1-2 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JLK
26.03.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 5-0 HT 2-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JLK
04.03.2023 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 2-0 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
18.09.2022 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-0 HT 1-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
19.03.2022 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tokyo
2-1
AWAY Kyoto Sanga
1.37 xG 1.68
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 9
220 Passes 326
72% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 29
19 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Tokyo vs Kyoto Sanga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tokyo squeezed past Kyoto Sanga 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had FC Tokyo as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Tokyo had 43% of the ball to Kyoto Sanga's 57%, shots finished 14-20, expected goals 1.37 to 1.68.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Tokyo had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for FC Tokyo and 0.50 for Kyoto Sanga.

What was the final score of FC Tokyo vs Kyoto Sanga?

FC Tokyo 2-1 Kyoto Sanga in the Japan - J1 League on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tokyo vs Kyoto Sanga?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Tokyo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split FC Tokyo 45%, draw 25%, Kyoto Sanga 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Tokyo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Tokyo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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