Albirex Niigata 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 3 May 2024

Albirex Niigata
1-1 HT 0-0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
📅03/05/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Albirex Niigata vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.87
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
44%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.68
Over 2.5
37%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.96
No
57%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.73
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.28
6+ Goals
7%
21.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.73 — our 37% vs market 30.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
7.19
1/2
6%
27.0
1/X
10%
15.6
X/1
12%
8.62
X/2
19%
3.96
X/X
14%
4.31
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.42
2/X
6%
14.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
22%
+2.6pp
31%
Draw
26%
+4.6pp
44%
Away Win
52%
-7.2pp
63%
Under 2.5
56%
+7.5pp
37%
Over 2.5
44%
-7.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.2pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Albirex Niigata v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 56%
-2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -8%
1.28/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/0.83
-11% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +17%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
304 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 77%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.3
14.3 Crosses 22.8
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.2

Albirex Niigata vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Albirex Niigata
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.35 xG 1.57
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
276 Passes 460
73% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 36
13 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
01.07.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-0 HT 2-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
26.02.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 HT 0-2 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
09.09.2017 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-0 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
12.04.2017 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-1 HT 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JLK
25.02.2017 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
03.11.2016 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-1 HT 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP

Albirex Niigata 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Albirex Niigata
1-1
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.37 xG 1.00
33% Ball Possession 67%
6 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
191 Passes 499
66% Pass Accuracy 85%
9 Box Touches 29
11 Crosses 33
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Albirex Niigata vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Albirex Niigata and Sanfrecce Hiroshima shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (63%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Albirex Niigata had 33% of the ball to Sanfrecce Hiroshima's 67%, shots finished 6-17, expected goals 0.37 to 1.00.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Albirex Niigata and 0.67 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

What was the final score of Albirex Niigata vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Albirex Niigata 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the Japan - J1 League on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Albirex Niigata vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Albirex Niigata 25%, draw 31%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 44%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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