Kashima Antlers 3-1 Shonan Bellmare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 3 May 2024

📅03/05/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.15
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.72
6+ Goals
10%
15.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 31% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.47
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
15%
4.22
X/2
15%
8.33
X/X
12%
4.56
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
8%
6.45
2/X
11%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
50%
-7.0pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.0pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.2pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kashima Antlers EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Shonan Bellmare EU Bookmakers 27%
+5% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +8%
1.55/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.29
+1% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
345 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 76%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
21.1 Crosses 18.2
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kashima Antlers
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.32 xG 0.93
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
336 Passes 218
75% Pass Accuracy 67%
22 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
02.09.2023 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 2-2 HT 2-1 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
11.06.2023 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 1-0 HT 1-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
21.08.2022 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 1-1 HT 0-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
19.03.2022 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 2-1 HT 0-1 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
09.08.2021 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 1-2 HT 1-1 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
10.03.2021 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 3-1 HT 1-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kashima Antlers
3-1
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
1.84 xG 2.62
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
335 Passes 265
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
13 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kashima Antlers vs Shonan Bellmare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashima Antlers got the better of Shonan Bellmare 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Kashima Antlers as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Kashima Antlers had 54% of the ball to Shonan Bellmare's 46%, shots finished 13-18, expected goals 1.84 to 2.62 — the balance of chances actually favoured Shonan Bellmare.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kashima Antlers had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Kashima Antlers and 1.00 for Shonan Bellmare.

What was the final score of Kashima Antlers vs Shonan Bellmare?

Kashima Antlers 3-1 Shonan Bellmare in the Japan - J1 League on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kashima Antlers vs Shonan Bellmare?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kashima Antlers win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Kashima Antlers 43%, draw 29%, Shonan Bellmare 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kashima Antlers) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kashima Antlers) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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