Sagan Tosu 0-2 Tokyo Verdy — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 3 May 2024

📅03/05/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.84
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
34%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.68
Over 2.5
49%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.75
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
4.25
6+ Goals
10%
21.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.65
1/2
7%
29.5
1/X
7%
13.5
X/1
13%
6.18
X/2
10%
4.88
X/X
9%
4.05
2/1
10%
34.5
2/2
17%
3.32
2/X
8%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
32%
+10.5pp
24%
Draw
29%
-4.6pp
34%
Away Win
40%
-6.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
56%
-4.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
44%
+4.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.3pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Tokyo Verdy EU Bookmakers 43%
+5% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +48% / +48%
1.12/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.35
+2% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +49% / +19%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
356 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 403 · 81%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
18.2 Crosses 12.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 0.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sagan Tosu
0-2
AWAY Tokyo Verdy
1.33 xG 2.10
69% Ball Possession 31%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
568 Passes 212
87% Pass Accuracy 72%
19 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sagan Tosu vs Tokyo Verdy
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tokyo Verdy saw off Sagan Tosu 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Sagan Tosu at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Sagan Tosu had 69% of the ball to Tokyo Verdy's 31%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 1.33 to 2.10.

What was the final score of Sagan Tosu vs Tokyo Verdy?

Sagan Tosu 0-2 Tokyo Verdy in the Japan - J1 League on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sagan Tosu vs Tokyo Verdy?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sagan Tosu win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sagan Tosu 42%, draw 24%, Tokyo Verdy 34%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sagan Tosu) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sagan Tosu) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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