Eibar 1-0 Eldense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 12 Oct 2024

📅12/10/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.96
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
1.6
Over 2.5
58%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.99
No
42%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2.48
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
4.79
6+ Goals
11%
27.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.79 — our 29% vs market 15.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.86
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.0
X/1
15%
4.31
X/2
9%
7.25
X/X
8%
3.85
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
30.0
2/2
12%
5.97
2/X
8%
14.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 30.0 — our 11% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
47%
-0.2pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.2pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
59%
-16.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
41%
+16.2pp
58%
BTTS Yes
46%
+11.5pp
42%
BTTS No
54%
-11.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Eibar EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Eldense EU Bookmakers 28%
+4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.41/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.31
+22% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -11%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
371 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 71%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
23.2 Crosses 19.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Eibar
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Eldense
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.92 xG 0.46
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
456 Passes 236
83% Pass Accuracy 70%
24 Box Touches 16
28 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
30.03.2024 Eibar Eibar 5-1 HT 1-0 Eldense Eldense İS2
28.08.2023 Eldense Eldense 2-1 HT 2-0 Eibar Eibar İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Eibar
1-0
AWAY Eldense
0.94 xG 0.85
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
298 Passes 358
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Eibar vs Eldense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Eibar nicked a narrow win over Eldense 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Eibar as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Eibar had 46% of the ball to Eldense's 54%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 0.94 to 0.85.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Eibar and 1.50 for Eldense.

What was the final score of Eibar vs Eldense?

Eibar 1-0 Eldense in the Spain - 2nd Division on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Eibar vs Eldense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Eibar win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Eibar 47%, draw 26%, Eldense 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Eibar) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Eibar) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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