Ceara 1-0 Ponte Preta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 12 Oct 2024

📅12/10/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.43
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
20%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.86
Over 2.5
44%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.09
No
57%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.21
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.66
6+ Goals
8%
15.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.21 — our 31% vs market 25.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
66%
-11.7pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.2pp
20%
Away Win
13%
+7.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.9pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceara EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Ponte Preta EU Bookmakers 16%
-2% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +9%
1.35/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/1.31
+19% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +9%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
390 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 75%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.9
22.4 Crosses 13.5
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ceara
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Ponte Preta
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.76 xG 1.09
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
365 Passes 203
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
18 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.06.2024 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 3-1 HT 2-0 Ceara Ceara BR2
21.08.2023 Ceara Ceara 1-1 HT 0-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
07.05.2023 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 0-0 HT 0-0 Ceara Ceara BR2
27.09.2014 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 3-1 HT 2-0 Ceara Ceara BR2
24.05.2014 Ceara Ceara 3-2 HT 1-1 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
21.11.2009 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-2 HT 1-1 Ceara Ceara BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ceara
1-0
AWAY Ponte Preta
1.26 xG 0.49
43% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 8
285 Passes 407
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 19
24 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ceara vs Ponte Preta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceara squeezed past Ponte Preta 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ceara as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ceara had 43% of the ball to Ponte Preta's 57%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 1.26 to 0.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Ceara and 1.67 for Ponte Preta.

What was the final score of Ceara vs Ponte Preta?

Ceara 1-0 Ponte Preta in the Brazil - Serie B on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceara vs Ponte Preta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ceara win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Ceara 54%, draw 26%, Ponte Preta 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ceara), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ceara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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