Novorizontino 1-3 Sport Recife — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 12 Oct 2024

📅12/10/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.25
Draw
36%
2.83
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
71%
1.41
Over 2.5
29%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.27
No
64%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
44%
2.0
2-3 Goals
35%
1.84
4-5 Goals
14%
6.63
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
20%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-3.2pp
36%
Draw
32%
+3.9pp
27%
Away Win
27%
-0.8pp
71%
Under 2.5
67%
+3.6pp
29%
Over 2.5
33%
-3.6pp
36%
BTTS Yes
40%
-4.4pp
64%
BTTS No
60%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novorizontino EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 31%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -5%
1.16/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.08
+13% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
320 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 78%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
23.8 Crosses 16.4
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novorizontino
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Sport Recife
0.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
0.85 xG 0.71
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
258 Passes 315
72% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
25.06.2024 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-2 HT 0-2 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
06.08.2023 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-0 HT 0-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
30.04.2023 Novorizontino Novorizontino 0-0 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
31.08.2022 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-0 HT 0-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
18.05.2022 Novorizontino Novorizontino 0-0 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novorizontino
1-3
AWAY Sport Recife
58% Ball Possession 42%
20 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
290 Passes 165
73% Pass Accuracy 57%
POST-MATCH Novorizontino vs Sport Recife
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sport Recife beat Novorizontino 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 36% / 27% — and on the day Sport Recife made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (71%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Novorizontino had 58% of the ball to Sport Recife's 42%, shots finished 20-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Sport Recife led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for Novorizontino and 0.60 for Sport Recife.

What was the final score of Novorizontino vs Sport Recife?

Novorizontino 1-3 Sport Recife in the Brazil - Serie B on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novorizontino vs Sport Recife?

Before kick-off our model rated a Novorizontino win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Novorizontino 38%, draw 36%, Sport Recife 27%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Novorizontino) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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