Burgos 0-1 Valladolid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 12 Oct 2025

📅12/10/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.57
Draw
28%
2.88
Away
37%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.48
Over 2.5
44%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.09
No
53%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.16
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
5.41
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.21
1/2
11%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.1
X/1
12%
5.51
X/2
16%
5.5
X/X
12%
3.52
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
10%
4.21
2/X
9%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
35%
-0.2pp
27%
Draw
31%
-3.8pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+3.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
64%
-8.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
36%
+8.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+3.6pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burgos EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Valladolid EU Bookmakers 37%
+9% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -15%
1.20/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.05
-7% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -5%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
288 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 79%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
17.6 Crosses 21.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burgos
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Valladolid
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.10 xG 1.18
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
220 Passes 405
70% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 1
27.07.2024 Valladolid Valladolid 1-1 HT 1-0 Burgos Burgos HAZ
13.01.2024 Burgos Burgos 1-0 HT 1-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS2
01.10.2023 Valladolid Valladolid 3-0 HT 2-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
23.07.2022 Burgos Burgos 0-0 HT 0-0 Valladolid Valladolid HAZ
08.01.2022 Valladolid Valladolid 1-0 HT 0-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
05.09.2021 Burgos Burgos 3-0 HT 3-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burgos
0-1
AWAY Valladolid
0.33 xG 0.43
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 2
206 Passes 241
67% Pass Accuracy 71%
15 Box Touches 12
21 Crosses 11
8 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Burgos vs Valladolid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valladolid squeezed past Burgos 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 37% — and on the day Valladolid made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Burgos had 48% of the ball to Valladolid's 52%, shots finished 7-11, expected goals 0.33 to 0.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Burgos and 0.83 for Valladolid.

What was the final score of Burgos vs Valladolid?

Burgos 0-1 Valladolid in the Spain - 2nd Division on 12/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burgos vs Valladolid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Valladolid win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Burgos 35%, draw 27%, Valladolid 37%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valladolid), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Valladolid) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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