Valladolid 1-1 Burgos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 27 Jul 2024

Valladolid
1-1 HT 1-0
Burgos
📅27/07/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Friendlies – 2024/2025

Valladolid vs Burgos Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.02
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.74
Over 2.5
39%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.9
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.02
6+ Goals
8%
18.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.9 — our 36% vs market 28.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.88
1/2
10%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
17%
4.46
X/2
11%
6.92
X/X
16%
4.32
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
7%
5.33
2/X
6%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-1.4pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.0pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+0.4pp
61%
Under 2.5
54%
+7.5pp
39%
Over 2.5
46%
-7.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.4pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Valladolid v Burgos — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valladolid EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Burgos EU Bookmakers 31%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +29% / +29%
0.58/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/0.64
-64% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +150%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
367 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0

Valladolid vs Burgos Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valladolid
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Burgos
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
1.18 xG 1.10
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
405 Passes 220
84% Pass Accuracy 70%
26 Box Touches 16
28 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
13.01.2024 Burgos Burgos 1-0 HT 1-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS2
01.10.2023 Valladolid Valladolid 3-0 HT 2-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
23.07.2022 Burgos Burgos 0-0 HT 0-0 Valladolid Valladolid HAZ
08.01.2022 Valladolid Valladolid 1-0 HT 0-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
05.09.2021 Burgos Burgos 3-0 HT 3-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS2

Valladolid 1-1 Burgos — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valladolid
1-1
AWAY Burgos
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Valladolid vs Burgos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valladolid and Burgos shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Valladolid at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (61%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Valladolid had 62% of the ball to Burgos's 38%, shots finished 17-7.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Valladolid and 0.80 for Burgos.

What was the final score of Valladolid vs Burgos?

Valladolid 1-1 Burgos in the Friendlies on 27/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valladolid vs Burgos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valladolid win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Valladolid 44%, draw 28%, Burgos 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Valladolid), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Valladolid) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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