Union Berlin 3-1 RB Leipzig — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 12 Dec 2025

📅12/12/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
43%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.8
Over 2.5
51%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-1.5pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.9pp
43%
Away Win
40%
+3.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.7pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 43%
+4% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -5%
1.33/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.52
-11% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -7%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
270 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 75%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.0
20.4 Crosses 18.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Berlin
2W-2D-2L
AWAY RB Leipzig
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.86 xG 0.89
35% Ball Possession 65%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
245 Passes 557
72% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.02.2025 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0-0 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
14.09.2024 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 0-0 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
04.02.2024 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-0 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
03.09.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0-3 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
11.02.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1-2 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
20.08.2022 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-1 HT 2-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Berlin
3-1
AWAY RB Leipzig
1.42 xG 0.55
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
210 Passes 464
68% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Berlin beat RB Leipzig 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was RB Leipzig at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Union Berlin had 37% of the ball to RB Leipzig's 63%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.42 to 0.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Union Berlin and 1.17 for RB Leipzig.

What was the final score of Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?

Union Berlin 3-1 RB Leipzig in the Germany - Bundesliga on 12/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?

Before kick-off our model rated an RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Union Berlin 31%, draw 26%, RB Leipzig 43%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (RB Leipzig) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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