RB Leipzig 0-0 Union Berlin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.49
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
21%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.56
2-3 Goals
43%
1.9
4-5 Goals
22%
2.88
6+ Goals
11%
8.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.83
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.75
X/1
15%
3.77
X/2
7%
12.3
X/X
10%
6.53
2/1 EV+ ✗
16%
20.75
2/2
9%
9.09
2/X
6%
17.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.75 — our 16% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
63%
-7.1pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.4pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+4.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.5pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +17%
2.13/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.54
+7% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +30%
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
465 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 73%
30.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
17.7 Crosses 15.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RB Leipzig
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Union Berlin
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.97 xG 0.97
65% Ball Possession 35%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
555 Passes 241
86% Pass Accuracy 71%
23 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.02.2024 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-0 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
03.09.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0-3 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
11.02.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1-2 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
20.08.2022 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-1 HT 2-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
23.04.2022 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1-2 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
20.04.2022 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-1 HT 0-1 Union Berlin Union Berlin AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RB Leipzig
0-0
AWAY Union Berlin
1.29 xG 0.61
68% Ball Possession 32%
15 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
657 Passes 259
88% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RB Leipzig and Union Berlin fought out a 0-0 stalemate. Neither side could find a way through.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had RB Leipzig at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, RB Leipzig had 68% of the ball to Union Berlin's 32%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.29 to 0.61.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.17 for Union Berlin.

What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?

RB Leipzig 0-0 Union Berlin in the Germany - Bundesliga on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?

Before kick-off our model rated a RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split RB Leipzig 56%, draw 23%, Union Berlin 21%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (RB Leipzig), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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