Freiburg 2-1 Bochum — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.53
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
22%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.21
Over 2.5
58%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.7
No
45%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.42
2-3 Goals
39%
1.89
4-5 Goals
27%
2.93
6+ Goals
15%
8.62
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.9
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.05
X/1
22%
3.84
X/2
9%
11.4
X/X
9%
6.25
2/1 EV+ ✓
10%
20.9
2/2
7%
8.39
2/X
7%
16.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.9 — our 10% vs market 2.3%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
61%
-7.5pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.9pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.6pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+0.8pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-0.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
55%
+0.1pp
45%
BTTS No
45%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Bochum EU Bookmakers 21%
+8% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -14%
2.11/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.94
-4% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -29%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
409 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 74%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
20.8 Crosses 18.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Bochum
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.31 xG 1.18
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
314 Passes 284
73% Pass Accuracy 71%
28 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
10.03.2024 Bochum Bochum 1-2 HT 0-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
21.10.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 2-1 HT 2-1 Bochum Bochum AL1
18.02.2023 Bochum Bochum 0-2 HT 0-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
26.08.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Bochum Bochum AL1
16.04.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 3-0 HT 2-0 Bochum Bochum AL1
02.03.2022 Bochum Bochum 1-2 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg
2-1
AWAY Bochum
3.88 xG 0.92
54% Ball Possession 46%
26 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
342 Passes 275
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
35 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Freiburg vs Bochum
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg squeezed past Bochum 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Freiburg as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Freiburg had 54% of the ball to Bochum's 46%, shots finished 26-13, expected goals 3.88 to 0.92 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Freiburg's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Freiburg and 0.50 for Bochum.

What was the final score of Freiburg vs Bochum?

Freiburg 2-1 Bochum in the Germany - Bundesliga on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg vs Bochum?

Before kick-off our model rated a Freiburg win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Freiburg 54%, draw 24%, Bochum 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Freiburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Freiburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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