Hoffenheim 1-4 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.09
Draw
21%
4.62
Away
57%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.98
Over 2.5
61%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.5
No
45%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
7.61
2-3 Goals
37%
2.26
4-5 Goals
28%
2.42
6+ Goals
15%
4.43
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
8.96
1/2
7%
17.9
1/X
7%
17.0
X/1
6%
14.2
X/2
11%
4.01
X/X
7%
8.4
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
38%
1.67
2/X
8%
17.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
16%
+5.9pp
21%
Draw
18%
+3.1pp
57%
Away Win
66%
-9.0pp
39%
Under 2.5
30%
+9.3pp
61%
Over 2.5
70%
-9.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
62%
-7.2pp
45%
BTTS No
38%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 70%
+7% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +24%
1.33/2.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.95/0.92
-31% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +44%
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
293 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 463 · 83%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.7
18.7 Crosses 17.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hoffenheim
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.54 xG 2.19
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
349 Passes 437
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 34
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
30.03.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 HT 0-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
04.11.2023 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 2-3 HT 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
11.02.2023 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-3 HT 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
20.08.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0-3 HT 0-2 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
07.05.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 2-4 HT 2-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
15.12.2021 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 HT 1-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoffenheim
1-4
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
0.92 xG 3.56
40% Ball Possession 60%
15 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 12
348 Passes 580
85% Pass Accuracy 92%
23 Box Touches 44
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen cruised past Hoffenheim 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Hoffenheim had 40% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 60%, shots finished 15-20, expected goals 0.92 to 3.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Hoffenheim and 2.33 for Bayer Leverkusen.

What was the final score of Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Hoffenheim 1-4 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim 22%, draw 21%, Bayer Leverkusen 57%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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