Vasco da Gama 2-1 Fluminense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 12 Dec 2025

📅12/12/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.29
Draw
25%
2.94
Away
41%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.48
Over 2.5
43%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.16
No
53%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.11
2-3 Goals
37%
1.81
4-5 Goals
17%
5.76
6+ Goals
11%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
5.84
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
4%
15.6
X/1 EV+ ✗
19%
6.78
X/2
11%
4.6
X/X
13%
3.57
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
25%
3.24
2/X
7%
14.8
Value flag · X/1 at 6.78 — our 19% vs market 11.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
27%
+7.4pp
25%
Draw
30%
-5.9pp
41%
Away Win
42%
-1.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
64%
-7.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
36%
+7.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
42%
+4.8pp
53%
BTTS No
58%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Fluminense EU Bookmakers 46%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -23%
2.05/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/0.95
+32% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -66% / -15%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
297 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 380 · 82%
15.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
16.3 Crosses 22.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vasco da Gama
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Fluminense
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.20 xG 1.25
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
283 Passes 489
79% Pass Accuracy 88%
14 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 3
21.10.2025 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
25.05.2025 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 1-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
11.08.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
20.04.2024 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
16.09.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 4-2 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
07.05.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 1-1 HT 0-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vasco da Gama
2-1
AWAY Fluminense
1.36 xG 0.41
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 6
378 Passes 269
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 19
28 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vasco da Gama edged past Fluminense 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Fluminense at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vasco da Gama had 57% of the ball to Fluminense's 43%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.36 to 0.41.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vasco da Gama had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.17 for Fluminense.

What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense?

Vasco da Gama 2-1 Fluminense in the Brazil - Cup on 12/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 34%, draw 25%, Fluminense 41%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fluminense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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