UD Oliveirense vs Chaves Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
UD Oliveirense v Chaves — Team-Based Signals
UD Oliveirense vs Chaves Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-1
Chaves
POR2
0-2
HT 0-2
UD Oliveirense
POR2
0-2
HT 0-2
UD Oliveirense
POR2
1-1
HT 0-0
UD Oliveirense
POR2
UD Oliveirense 2-3 Chaves — Actual Match Statistics
Chaves edged past UD Oliveirense 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Chaves as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, UD Oliveirense had 51% of the ball to Chaves's 49%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.48 to 2.87 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Chaves's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chaves led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for UD Oliveirense and 1.50 for Chaves.
What was the final score of UD Oliveirense vs Chaves?
UD Oliveirense 2-3 Chaves in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 12/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for UD Oliveirense vs Chaves?
Before kick-off our model rated an Chaves win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split UD Oliveirense 28%, draw 26%, Chaves 46%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chaves), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.