Porto II 1-0 Penafiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 12 Dec 2025

Porto II
1-0 HT 1-0
Penafiel
📅12/12/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2025/2026

Porto II vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
34%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.71
Over 2.5
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.7
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.99
6+ Goals
9%
18.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
20%
X/2
16%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-3.1pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.4pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+5.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.0pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Porto II v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto II EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Penafiel EU Bookmakers 32%
-9% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
1.48/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.51
-11% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -22%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
327 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
20.7 Crosses 16.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6

Porto II vs Penafiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto II
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Penafiel
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.02 xG 1.17
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
325 Passes 232
78% Pass Accuracy 72%
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.02.2025 Porto II Porto II 3-2 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
15.09.2024 Penafiel Penafiel 1-1 HT 0-1 Porto II Porto II POR2
30.03.2024 Porto II Porto II 3-1 HT 1-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
11.11.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 3-2 HT 1-0 Porto II Porto II POR2
03.04.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 1-2 HT 0-2 Porto II Porto II POR2
19.10.2022 Porto II Porto II 0-0 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2

Porto II 1-0 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto II
1-0
AWAY Penafiel
1.68 xG 1.45
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 6
272 Passes 350
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Porto II vs Penafiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto II nicked a narrow win over Penafiel 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 25% / 34%) promised a tight game; Porto II found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Porto II had 44% of the ball to Penafiel's 56%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 1.68 to 1.45.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto II had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Porto II and 1.33 for Penafiel.

What was the final score of Porto II vs Penafiel?

Porto II 1-0 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 12/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto II vs Penafiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto II win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Porto II 40%, draw 25%, Penafiel 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto II), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto II) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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