Penafiel vs Porto II Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Penafiel v Porto II — Team-Based Signals
Penafiel vs Porto II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-2
HT 1-0
Porto II
POR2
1-2
HT 0-2
Porto II
POR2
0-0
HT 0-0
Penafiel
POR2
1-2
HT 0-0
Porto II
POR2
3-1
HT 1-1
Penafiel
POR2
Penafiel 1-1 Porto II — Actual Match Statistics
Penafiel and Porto II couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.
Our pre-match lean was Penafiel at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Penafiel had 52% of the ball to Porto II's 48%, shots finished 5-8, expected goals 1.15 to 0.40.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto II led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Penafiel and 2.00 for Porto II.
What was the final score of Penafiel vs Porto II?
Penafiel 1-1 Porto II in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Porto II?
Before kick-off our model rated a Penafiel win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 41%, draw 26%, Porto II 33%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.