Penafiel 1-1 Porto II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒14:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.54
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.39
6+ Goals
11%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.54 — our 28% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
44%
-3.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+2.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.1pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penafiel EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto II EU Bookmakers 34%
-3% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +5%
1.38/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.30
+6% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
338 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.8 Crosses 17.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penafiel
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Porto II
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.01 xG 1.36
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
274 Passes 353
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.03.2024 Porto II Porto II 3-1 HT 1-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
11.11.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 3-2 HT 1-0 Porto II Porto II POR2
03.04.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 1-2 HT 0-2 Porto II Porto II POR2
19.10.2022 Porto II Porto II 0-0 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
07.05.2022 Penafiel Penafiel 1-2 HT 0-0 Porto II Porto II POR2
23.12.2021 Porto II Porto II 3-1 HT 1-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penafiel
1-1
AWAY Porto II
1.15 xG 0.40
52% Ball Possession 48%
5 Total Shots 8
0 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 5
174 Passes 221
68% Pass Accuracy 72%
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Penafiel vs Porto II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penafiel and Porto II couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Penafiel at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Penafiel had 52% of the ball to Porto II's 48%, shots finished 5-8, expected goals 1.15 to 0.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto II led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Penafiel and 2.00 for Porto II.

What was the final score of Penafiel vs Porto II?

Penafiel 1-1 Porto II in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Porto II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penafiel win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 41%, draw 26%, Porto II 33%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Penafiel)
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