Porto II 3-1 Penafiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.9
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.07
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.81
6+ Goals
9%
16.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-5.7pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.9pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+2.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.2pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto II EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Penafiel EU Bookmakers 29%
-12% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -20%
1.85/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.36
+14% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
308 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.3 Crosses 19.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto II
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Penafiel
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.43 xG 0.81
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
336 Passes 283
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 4
11.11.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 3-2 HT 1-0 Porto II Porto II POR2
03.04.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 1-2 HT 0-2 Porto II Porto II POR2
19.10.2022 Porto II Porto II 0-0 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
07.05.2022 Penafiel Penafiel 1-2 HT 0-0 Porto II Porto II POR2
23.12.2021 Porto II Porto II 3-1 HT 1-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
21.02.2021 Penafiel Penafiel 0-0 HT 0-0 Porto II Porto II POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto II
3-1
AWAY Penafiel
0.78 xG 1.91
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 4
391 Passes 254
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
11 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Porto II vs Penafiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto II saw off Penafiel 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Porto II as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Porto II had 59% of the ball to Penafiel's 41%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 0.78 to 1.91 — on chances, Penafiel could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto II had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Porto II and 1.00 for Penafiel.

What was the final score of Porto II vs Penafiel?

Porto II 3-1 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto II vs Penafiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto II win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Porto II 43%, draw 29%, Penafiel 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto II), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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