Porto II vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Porto II v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals
Porto II vs Penafiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-2
HT 1-0
Porto II
POR2
1-2
HT 0-2
Porto II
POR2
0-0
HT 0-0
Penafiel
POR2
1-2
HT 0-0
Porto II
POR2
3-1
HT 1-1
Penafiel
POR2
0-0
HT 0-0
Porto II
POR2
Porto II 3-1 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics
Porto II saw off Penafiel 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Porto II as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Porto II had 59% of the ball to Penafiel's 41%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 0.78 to 1.91 — on chances, Penafiel could feel hard done by.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto II had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Porto II and 1.00 for Penafiel.
What was the final score of Porto II vs Penafiel?
Porto II 3-1 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Porto II vs Penafiel?
Before kick-off our model rated a Porto II win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Porto II 43%, draw 29%, Penafiel 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto II), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.