Uniao De Leiria 1-1 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
34%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.71
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
19%
3.27
6+ Goals
11%
11.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
19%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+1.3pp
31%
Draw
27%
+4.5pp
34%
Away Win
40%
-5.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.6pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uniao De Leiria EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 43%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -3%
1.34/1.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.43
+12% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -23%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
327 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.0 Crosses 21.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uniao De Leiria
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Nacional
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.85 xG 1.69
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 7
293 Passes 327
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
27 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 0
11.11.2023 Nacional Nacional 2-0 HT 1-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR2
30.07.2023 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 3-3 HT 3-1 Nacional Nacional PRLK
12.05.2012 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 2-3 HT 0-2 Nacional Nacional POR
15.01.2012 Nacional Nacional 2-2 HT 0-1 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR
12.02.2011 Nacional Nacional 0-1 HT 0-1 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR
12.09.2010 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 2-1 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uniao De Leiria
1-1
AWAY Nacional
1.83 xG 0.73
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 7
314 Passes 319
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Uniao De Leiria vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uniao De Leiria and Nacional couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 31% / 34% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Uniao De Leiria had 50% of the ball to Nacional's 50%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 1.83 to 0.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Uniao De Leiria and 1.83 for Nacional.

What was the final score of Uniao De Leiria vs Nacional?

Uniao De Leiria 1-1 Nacional in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uniao De Leiria vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uniao De Leiria win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Uniao De Leiria 35%, draw 31%, Nacional 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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