Mafra 0-4 Tondela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 15 Sep 2024

Mafra
0-4 HT 0-1
Tondela
📅15/09/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Mafra vs Tondela Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.33
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.68
Over 2.5
41%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.8
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.18
6+ Goals
9%
20.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 30% vs market 29.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
39%
-2.0pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.4pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+2.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.3pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mafra v Tondela — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mafra EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Tondela EU Bookmakers 36%
-4% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +16%
1.40/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.09
-4% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +30%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
341 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
20.4 Crosses 17.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7

Mafra vs Tondela Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mafra
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Tondela
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.03 xG 1.26
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
362 Passes 233
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
24 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
17.02.2024 Mafra Mafra 1-3 HT 0-1 Tondela Tondela POR2
16.09.2023 Tondela Tondela 2-1 HT 0-0 Mafra Mafra POR2
19.03.2023 Tondela Tondela 1-2 HT 1-1 Mafra Mafra POR2
09.10.2022 Mafra Mafra 1-1 HT 1-1 Tondela Tondela POR2
20.04.2022 Mafra Mafra 1-1 HT 1-0 Tondela Tondela POK
03.03.2022 Tondela Tondela 3-0 HT 1-0 Mafra Mafra POK

Mafra 0-4 Tondela — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mafra
0-4
AWAY Tondela
0.46 xG 1.58
55% Ball Possession 45%
4 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 3
405 Passes 325
88% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Mafra vs Tondela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tondela swept aside Mafra 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (37% / 28% / 35%) promised a tight game; Tondela found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mafra had 55% of the ball to Tondela's 45%, shots finished 4-12, expected goals 0.46 to 1.58.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tondela led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Mafra and 1.83 for Tondela.

What was the final score of Mafra vs Tondela?

Mafra 0-4 Tondela in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mafra vs Tondela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mafra win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Mafra 37%, draw 28%, Tondela 35%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Mafra), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mafra) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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